3 (78) 2017
ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS
Mokiy V.S., Lukyanova T.A. Interdisciplinary collaboration in contemporary science: Approaches and perspectives »»
Mokiy Vladimir S. – Institute of Transdisciplinary Technologies, Nalchik, Russia, firstname.lastname@example.org
The authors explain a natural connection between diverse principles of academic approaches and their system analogs. The authors suggest usage of general classification of scientific approaches different by identification features, functional peculiarities and optimal scopes of application, but relative due to the found connection. General classification forms a basis for clarification of meaning of academic and system approaches and consciously use of right terms within one semantic field of scientific cognition. Ordering of scientific approaches within such a classification allows rationalizing a wide variety of interdisciplinary collaborative works in contemporary science. Special attention is given to the classification of systematic approaches. As a classification criterion, worldview and interpretation of the concept “system” that underlie in the basis of the appropriate approach are used. The assumption is justified that certain types of systematic approaches have different dependence on the decisions of general philosophical problems of system research. It is shown that the emergence of systems thinking paradoxes is peculiar only to those types of systems approaches which are organically linked with the object of research with its knowledge as a certain integrity (generalized subjective characteristics of the research object which has a complex internal structure) and the whole (generalized object identification attribute). For systematic approaches, which connect the object of research with its knowledge as a one (objective start of any systematic set), paradoxes of systems thinking are replaced by the imperatives and maxims manifested not only in the structure of the system of disciplinary knowledge, but also in the nature of external and internal interactions of the object as a fragment of One orderly medium.
ECONOMICAL POLICY A ND ECONOMICAL PRACTICE
Mirkin Y.M., Dobashina I.V. Russian economy: Challenges and scenarios of volatile future »»
Mirkin Yakov M. – National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations after E. Primakov Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, email@example.com
The model of domestic economy and financial system as a starting point for scenario forecasting and development of macroeconomic strategies on the horizon of 2017–2025 is disclosed. The analysis of the basic features of this model as “Latin American” is given: overconcentration of ownership; resource-based economy; dependence on world oil, natural gas and metal prices; excessive administrative costs and heavy taxes; very high volatility and risks; maximum offshoring; shortage of FDI; weak financial development; distortions in credit supply, interest rates and RUB / USD exchange rates; speculative financial markets dependent on carry traders. We provide the analysis of current economic and financial policies, which limit growth and technological modernization. The drivers that stabilized the economy in 2014–2017 are explained. The forecast of changes in the economic situation in Russia, macroeconomic and financial policies in 2017–2019 is given, depending on changes in world prices for oil and other natural resources (five probabilistic scenarios). The international and domestic macro risks are revealed in the next 10 to 15 years. Four probabilistic scenarios of the economic future for the period until 2025 are presented: “Tsunami”, “Frozen Economy”, “Controled Cold”, “New Deal”. The “New Deal” policy formula aimed at creating conditions in Russia for ultra-fast economic growth, accelerated technological modernization, improving quality of life and life expectancy is detailed. The key ideas of credit, monetary, currency rate, tax, budgetary, price, regulatory and investment policies, as well as policies in the field of structural reforms and development of regions are presented. This article gives KPI of the New Deal. The article explains the basic theoretical ideas («rational liberalism») underlying the new economic policy.
Manevitch V.E. Macroeconomic situation in the Russian economy in 2015–2016 and the prospects of economic growth »»
Manevitch Vitaly E. – Institute of Economics Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, firstname.lastname@example.org
The article presents the analysis of the factors determining changes in the macroeconomic situation in the Russian economy in 2015–2016. Consistently consider the relationship with the rest of the world, the dynamics of corporate profits, the distribution of total income between activities, changes in investment demand. In the final sections of the article the author briefly analyzes the features of fiscal and monetary policy pursued in 2015 and 2016, and its impact on the macroeconomic situation. It is concluded that in 2015–2016, the Russian economy has formed a new equilibrium, which creates the prerequisites for economic growth. Decreased surplus in the current account and the passive balance in financial account; decreased passive balances in services and investment income accounts. The main conclusion that can be drawn based on comparison of payments and balances for 2015 and 2016 and the number of previous years is that the increase in the value of exports is not a necessary condition of the balance of payments. It is possible to preserve an acceptable level of imports, even if falling world oil prices and a sharp reduction in export revenues, provided a favorable change (or targeted regulation) cross-border capital flows. Regulation of cross-border movement of capital is significantly less costly way to achieve equilibrium of the balance of payments than the increase in physical volumes of energy exports. Movement to a new equilibrium caused a number of positive effects: decreased the share of net exports in GDP; decreased in the value added redistributed in favor of industries and corporations that are export oriented; increased profits earned in the manufacturing sector, infrastructure sector, agriculture; reduced budget dependence on oil and gas revenues. Movement to a new equilibrium of the balance of payments helped to stabilize economy, however, it could not, by itself, to ensure the transition of the economy in the growth stage. For the resumption of growth it is need the momentum coming from investment government spending and consumer demand.
Soboleva I.V., Chubarova T.V. Challenges to social policy in Russia: A need for a new model »»
Soboleva Irina V. – Institute of Economics Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, email@example.com
The article analyzes global and domestic challenges facing social policy in Russia dictating need for its revision. Among the common problems that developed countries are facing at present are social and economic consequences of globalization, the development of new technology and population aging. At the same time, the problems that characterize modern Russia are indicated, especially the low, although gradually increasing, life expectancy at birth; a low standard of living for a significant part of citizens, due to the insufficiency of labor incomes and social transfers; high inequality, largely associated with distorted wage differentiation and inefficient taxation; a decline in social security in the world of work, income insecurity and difficult access to social infrastructure, which gives rise to uncertainty about the future; the imbalance of the territorial distribution of the population, jobs and social infrastructure. In the article prospective directions of development of social policy in the developed countries are highlighted. The contours of a new model of social policy in Russia aimed at development of national human potential and based on dialectical unity of social and economic policy under the leading role of the state are outlined. Its priorities are substantiated: ensuring decent employment and supporting the social sphere, while maintaining subordinate role of social transfers. In authors’ opinion implementation of such a model of social policy is a necessary prerequisite for sustainable social and economic development of Russia.
Livchits V.N., Livchits S.V. Poverty and inequality in income of the population in Russia and abroad. General characteristics. Part 1 »»
Livchits Veniamin N. – Institute for Systems Analysis of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, firstname.lastname@example.org
The article is devoted to analysis of the most acute and urgent for the modern world economy problems – poverty of population and inequality in its income. In the article it is considered, conformably both to the developed and developing countries, how large the difference is in livelihood of the people of our planet, i.e. in the wealth they have accumulated and income they receive; how large inequality is in potential financial possibilities, life level and quality of the people working in different industries and spheres, both in foreign countries and Russia. It is shown that contrary to expectations globalization processes in the world economy and society haven’t led to positive consequences but to serious negative ones. As a rule and during long period of the last and current centuries the following stable situation can be observed: the wealth is being distributed more and more unevenly, it is accumulated by more and more solvent groups. Moreover, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, while the middle section is being eroded, to a large extent, by globalization processes. These conclusions are based both on systems analysis of official statistics and opinions of famous sociologists and economists, including Nobel prize-winners. Considerable attention is also given to methods of measuring inequality and poverty of population, principles of forming and real values of their indicators, their being influenced by various factors – status position of income-receiver, kind of activity, professional, regional and industry belonging, level of technological development of the country under consideration and so on. The article is naturally divided into two parts: in the first part general characteristics of the situation being studied will be given and in the second one – its more detailed factor analysis, besides, possible additional state measures on its improvement will be also indicated.
Smolyak S.A., Arkin V.I., Slastnikov A.D. Of the DCF-method for real estate valuation under uncertainty »»
Smolyak Sergey A. – Central Economics and Mathematical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, email@example.com
We offer a mathematical model for estimating the market value of a property comprised of a building and a land parcel. For these purposes, we apply an unconventional version of the discounted cash flow analysis, the highest and best use principle, as well as notions utilized in the theory of real options. In doing so, we take into account the income tax paid by the owner of the property and ad valorem expenses (for example, the property tax) – as part of the costs associated with the use of the property. Therefore, the cash flows used in the valuation of property are post-tax. The input information for appraising the market value of the property includes the market value of underlying land plot and the net income that property generates as of the valuation date (net of ad valorem expenses). However, the values of these inputs subsequent to the date of valuation are unknown, and their dynamics is modelled by random processes of the geometric Brownian motion. Solutions to the model indicate that the value of building depends on the value of the land on which it is located, the corresponding dependence being a nonlinear one. Thus, if the ratio of income from the property use to the value of the land plot does not exceed a certain threshold, the value of the building must be zero (that is, the value of the overall property must coincide with the value of the land plot). We present some examples of application for the proposed method. Of course, the market value of the property depends likewise on the parameters of those random processes that describe the dynamics of income from the property use and the market value of the land. In one example we show how the values of these parameters can be evaluated on the basis of the price data on several comparable properties.
Prokopyev M.G. Transfer effect of import and export prices changes into the prices of home market: Methodical aspects »»
Prokopyev Mikhail G. – Market Economy Institute Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, firstname.lastname@example.org
Methodical aspects of import and export prices changes on the prices of the home market in conditions as imperfect substitution, and the imperfect transformation are considered. The key parameters determining the degree of impact on home price changes in external prices: price elasticity of domestic manufacturer in case of change of import price and price elasticity of domestic manufacturer in case of the export price changes proved. The factors determining values of these parameters are considered. The one-sector model of partial equilibrium which from the demand side includes Armington approach, respectively the supply side is presented by CET-function (constant elasticity of transformation) is the basis for the research. Model under certain assumptions and prerequisites, allows us to estimate the effect of the «perturbations» exogenous parameters of model (import tariffs, subsidies and export duties, as well exchange rate) to the equilibrium (base) values of the internal prices. Special attention is paid to the extent to which imported and domestic goods of one commodity group substitute each other in the domestic market, as well as the degree of transformation of domestic products between domestic and foreign markets. In this connection, were considered the relationships between elasticity of the producer price when the import price and the substitution elasticity of Armington are changed, as well as the elasticity of the producer's price when the export price and the elasticity of the transformation are changed. Regardless rather strong prerequisites and limitations, this model can be a useful tool for analyzing the impact of tariff and customs policy on the markets of single commodity groups and sectors of the economy, allows estimating the percentage changes in the volume of sales of domestic products on the domestic market in result changes in import and export prices.
Pavlov R.N. The political economy analysis of the current trends of development of social entrepreneurship »»
Pavlov Ruslan N. – Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, email@example.com
The paper considers some peculiarities of genesis of social entrepreneurship as a new form of organizing entrepreneurial activity aimed not at maximizing the owners’ profits, but at realizing social tasks to which the activity of such enterprises is related. It is shown that being under the dominance of neoliberal approach and its influence on the economic theory it’s impossible to create an adequate theory explaining the significance of social entrepreneurship within a context of changing the paradigms of economic relations, as imposing the false patterns followed by the falsification of historical facts – that is a result of the influence of that ideology. At the same time, political economy, and, in particular, its Marxist stream, provides a much wider range of opportunities for its adequate assessment. An attempt of applying such an approach to the analysis of this phenomenon is presented in the article. A new perspective, within which social entrepreneurship is considered as a phenomenon which can’t be incorporated into the traditionally deemed capitalistic way of production, according to the Marsist’ political economy views, is provided. The main milestones of development of social entrepreneurship, in terms of evolution of property relations, ways of production and models of management at the level of enterprises are considered within the concept of post-capitalist stages of social development of D. Laibman. It is shown that social entrepreneurship contains the features of generation of a new social structure, which doesn’t correspond with the traditional values of capitalist relations, because it is based at a high extent on the principles of the solidarity economy, which enters into a conflict with a model of the competition economy, in terms of which it emerges.
Atarov N.Z. Strategies and factors of import substitution in the market of fund-creating engineering industry products in Russia »»
Atarov Nikolay Z. – State Budget Educational Institution Higher education of the Moscow region “Technological University”, Korolev, Russia, firstname.lastname@example.org
The article is devoted to the questions of import substitution in the market of fund-creating engineering industry products in Russia. The choice of import substitution strategy at the current stage of the structural reorganization of the Russian economy has acquired increased relevance. They are especially important in manufacturing and machine building with the aim of increasing the level of military capacity, as well as food, technical and technological independence of the country. This is due to the need to improve the integration links of our economy with the leading countries of the world economy. In the context of increasing economic sanctions against Russia, the priority task is to radically change the structure of exports and imports by reducing the share of output of raw materials industries in exports and engineering products for investment purposes in the structure of the country's imports. In the article the attention is paid to the strategies of increasing the competitive capacities of the fund-creating engineering industry, the selection and implementation of innovative and investment policies. One of the strategies for increasing the volume of production of the fund-creating engineering industry is aimed at using the potential for growth in the utilization rate of its operating enterprises. At the same time, the priority direction in solving this problem is the priority development of industrial production core in conjunction with the program of conversion and diversification of military industrial complex production. Implementation of this strategy requires a number of organizational and economic measures and mechanisms. The main ones are proposed by the author. Significant opportunities for enhancing Russia's fund-creating potential are also available within the framework of the Eurasian Union, with an orientation toward a strategy of expanding the integration space of the countries of the Union with Russia's leading role in high-tech development. The main directions of solving the strategic problem of increasing the reproductive technological potential of Russia through import substitution in the market of fund-creating engineering industry products are summarized in the article.
Andrukovich P.F. “The human factor” in the history of changes in the Dow Jones Index lists »»
Andrukovich Petr F. – Central Economic and Mathematic Institute Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, email@example.com
In the scientific literature devoted to the study of stock markets, the issue of changes to the lists of indices studied in many works, however, in the vast majority of cases they studied only the consequences of including a stock in the list of stock indices – or of their exclusion from such lists – from the point of view of change of quotations of this stock, the volatility of these changes, sales volume and other similar characteristics. At the same time, there are no publications which have addressed the question of why the shares of this company included in the index list, and some other company are excluded from this list, and, most importantly, how appropriate for this time period was the change. This issue, i.e. assessing the level of correctness of the decisions taken by the leadership of the stock index when you change its list, and which is called here «human factor» are the focus of this article. The results based on the analysis of the lists changes in the index Dow Jones for more than 120 years the story of his calculus. It is shown that this factor has a significant impact not only on the qualitative composition of the lists of the index, but also on the dynamics of its values, as accelerating growth and slowing it down. On the basis of statistical data about the frequency and intensity of replacements of companies in the lists of the index is evaluated the quality of the US stock market in different periods of time from the point of view of stability of its composition and the volatility of trading.
SCIENCE LIFE CHRONICLE
Sorokozherdev V.V., Konstantinidi H.A. National economies in conditions of global and local transformations
Kleiner G.B., Schepetova S.E., Kachalov R.M. In the circle of light of the system paradigm
CONFERENCES, SYMPOSIUMS, SEMINARS, COMPETITIONS
Nineteenth Russian Symposium «Strategic Planning and Evolution of Enterprises»
VIII Russian Symposium on Economic Theory – SET2018
Pirogov N.L. Innovative vector of development